BEFORE
LiDAR maps the fuels
A LiDAR flight over the unit measures the canopy and surface fuels the model will burn through.
2027 Field Program · Arizona and Colorado
Measuring real fire, to make the model better.
Wildfire records come slowly: one mapped outline a night, the weather inferred, the fuels taken from national maps. A prescribed burn can be measured from start to finish. In 2027 we will measure prescribed burns in Arizona and Colorado and score Osborne against what actually happened.
Status: planned for 2027. Partners and funding are being arranged.
On each burn
DURING
Thermal maps the front
Thermal imaging records the fire front minutes apart, every frame on GPS time, with wind and humidity measured on the unit.
AFTER
LiDAR maps what burned
A second LiDAR flight shows what the fire consumed and changed.
THEN
Osborne is scored
Osborne runs the burn twice, with the national fuel maps and with our measured ones, and both runs are scored against the record.
What we want to learn
- Q1Does the model place the fire front where it actually goes, minute by minute?
- Q2How wrong are the national fuel maps on this unit, and does measuring the fuels fix it?
- Q3How much of the error is weather?
- Q4What actually burned, against what the model expected?
- Q5Do corrections learned on one burn improve the next one?
How we work on a burn
We come as invited research cooperators. The land manager's burn boss runs the burn, holds the permits and directs every aircraft. We never light fire, and our measurements never change how a burn is run.
Drones fly only as a written part of the agency's operation, and give way to all crewed aircraft. Crew positions are never streamed publicly. The data is shared with the land manager under the agreement we sign together.
Before, during, after, scored
Diagram · not a photo · how a burn is measured
1 · Before
LiDAR maps the fuel before the burn.
2 · During
Thermal records the fire as it burns.
3 · After
LiDAR maps what burned after the burn.
4 · Scored
Osborne's model (dashed) against what burned (solid).
Diagram, not a photo: LiDAR before, thermal during, LiDAR after, and Osborne scored against what burned.
Partners we are looking for
Land managers and burn bosses
In Arizona and Colorado, with burns we could join as cooperators.
Drone, LiDAR and thermal operators
To advise on aircraft and sensors, and to fly with us.
Universities
Fire behavior, remote sensing and GIS researchers who want to work on the data.
Funders
Grant programs and investors in wildfire resilience.